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The World In Permanent Crisis
New Pod: Robert D. Kaplan - Geopolitical Analyst
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Robert Kaplan has been sighted as one of the most influential geopolitical thinkers of the modern era. The Revenge Of Geography, Surrender or Starve, Balkan Ghosts, Asias Cauldron, The Tragic Mind, and so on. I counted 18 books so far with his most recent being released now, Waste Land: A World In Permanent Crisis.
I’ve listened to many of his books at this point, I found Revenge Of Geography a few years ago whilst preparing for my interviews with Tim Marshall. And therefore, I hope this interview achieves a more pixelated cross section of Bob’s thoughts on the current moment that spans across the various subjects which he’s dedicated his life to.
In the podcast we do the deterioration of the rules based order, his prism of utopian versus tragic leaders, the persistent role of geography in conflict and culture, Australia, Taiwan, and hopefully a little bit more as well between those explicit questions.
Please consider sharing this interview with a mate, colleague, brother, sister, whoever you think might be interested in this as well.
Consider sharing this interview with a mate, colleague, brother, sister, whoever you think might be interested in this as well.
Here is a transcript of the opening exchange from the conversation…
Ryan
If the linchpin of wasteland thesis is that the international rules based order is deteriorating. In the last few days, we've seen Trump calls Zelensky dictator Rubio talk about a Russian US alliance, European defense stocks rally over US insecurity, Turkey cozy up alongside Ukraine, Taiwan looks more and more ripe for the taking. Just how badly is this proceeding?
Robert
Well, you know, there's an old saying that's been ascribed to Lenin, but Lenin never actually said it, which is that years go by and nothing happens. And then days and weeks go by and decades happen. And we're in one of those periods right now. Keep in mind that the post-war world lasted for 80 years.
That's a very long time in history, especially given all the technological and economic and social changes. So to have a military alliance last for 80 years during any period of history, but particularly this period, which has been so tumultuous with change, is extraordinary. And the one thing history teaches is that nothing lasts forever. Everything ultimately evolves.
is sent you know we're entering into a world that's more unstable because allies help you project power they also protect you and they also give you advice you know allies of eight decades give you advice they'll tell you what you don't want to hear because they have a very close and therefore easy relationship with you
Once you start throwing away allies, you're really alone in the world. It's great when the wind is at your back, but when the wind is in your face, which ultimately happens, you don't have allies. It's very bad. So I think this is a very tumultuous period. I obviously finished Wasteland months and months ago, the way the books work in production.
And when I finished it, I had no idea whatsoever that Trump would win. You know, it was just too close to call. There were just too many. This was even long before Biden had dropped out, kind of. So, but I think those circumstances are changing radically. This bears out the message of the book.
And generally, the theme is in your answer there as well that given the rule based order of diplomacy, economic integration, international standards, it's transitioning to this more regional hard power, military force, narrower thinking, transactional alliances. You also mentioned that it's great when the wind is at your back that you can say fuck you to your allies. But when it's not, you need to rely on your allies. This is the whole point of a of a trade off in a relationship. Not everything is going to be all good all the time.
Ryan
But what are the implications of this transition which you've written about in Wasteland and are describing now?
Well, the implications are, remember, we're in a world that's more anxious, more claustrophobic, more tightly connected than ever before because of technology. Technology has shrunk geography. And that makes it all closer, but not necessarily safer. The fact that an event or a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East
can affect a social campus crisis in the United States to a degree never before. That's new. Attrition of the same adds up to big change. And therefore, this tightening of the world due to technology often goes unnoticed because it's so gradual, essentially. So when we have a world that's moving into the direction, as you said
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