Podcasting's Regression To The Mean

When podcast’s went exponential over Covid it was an expression for how few barriers exist to enter this medium.

Rogan, EconTalk or ‘insert what you listened to here’ were already huge - first mover advantage, they had been doing this long before 2020 and soaked up the very few people that were already podcast inclined - they were the first type of asynchronous media doing this more casual, inviting, longer, niche interview style.

Back then, podcasting was still a ‘new’ phenomenon. There was something ‘cool’ about podcasts. And as my show matured, during 2021, I had this feeling that although the lower slopes of podcasting had been grazed clean, just over the bend there were green, rolling hills of virgin land.

It still feels this way in a sense, despite the saturation. Both the audience numbers and amount of shows have multiplied several times over since Covid. And guest behaviour is changing. For the last few years, attracting the guests I wanted was surprisingly easy. Surface their email address, let them know I was keen, tell them about a few people who’ve been guests before… and then all of a sudden I’m sitting across a table or Zoom with them. Until recently, it felt like irrespective of the shows size or quality, guests assumed a ‘status’ that came with podcasts.

But because of the flood of one man shows, I’m afraid that same status feels slipping away. I’ve noticed guests being more picky about the shows they appear on. We’ve moved into an ecosystem of much higher expectations for what a podcast should be. There is also the compounding realisation the great majority of show’s do absolutely nothing to move the needle on book sales, notoriety, etc. Therefore, the question surfaces more forcefully… why come on and spend a few hours if there’s nothing in it?

I’ve also noticed that the quality (and therefore work) of preparation that the podcaster brings to the interview is more important than ever, and only going in one direction. If a big audience is off the table, then what can the podcast offer? A chance to speak about their work with someone genuinely into it whose done genuine research? A good time? The calibre of guests that came before them? I think above all of these, the single biggest needle mover will prove to be the reputation of the show and it’s host that wins out in the end.

If podcasts are regressing to the mean, that means they are on the other side of the outlier effect Covid had on the industry. More shows, more guests, and way more new listeners meant it felt like - ‘great, I just do this for long enough and I’ll be as big as Rogan’. This promise of consistency wins over time hasn’t played out. Unsurprisingly, it seems to be quality above all else that forces growth. Podcasting is a word of mouth medium + Youtube discoverability if you can sort out production.

I watch closely shows like Dwarkesh, Joe Walker or Peter Robinson and at times, feel like I’m do everything wrong. A feeling like ‘I could never be that good’. Dwarkesh and Joe have been doing it (more or less) as long as me, Peter much longer, and these shows have in common a (well deserved) reputation for being where the smart guests and smart listeners go. That reputation is invaluable, impossible to quantify beyond listener numbers (especially as media and business models are redrawn). But if podcasts are regressing to the mean and the novelty of podcasts is wearing off, listener habits will stabilise and move toward a smaller number of higher-quality, (ish)established shows, while abandoning less engaging and redundant content - (the same guests getting the same question met with ‘interesting’ and then onto the next). At times I’m worried that I fall into the back half of that sentence, and despite having done this for 5 years, and boasted some guests I’m really proud of, If I’m still going to be hosting this show in 5 years than something ‘above average’ is by definition necessary. I need to drive quality that will drive reputation.

Which means, way more research and prep for interviews. I look back on some previous guests and am embarrassed by the squandered opportunity, how did I not do more? This isn’t to say it’s all lament, the majority of episodes I feel great about, and I think the guest did too. Preparation being the deciding variable. But for this show to still be around it needs to have that reputation. I’m not trying to do what Dwarkesh, Joe or James do. Dwarkesh is deeep into the technical weeds, while Joe and Peter political and academic. That’s not my bag and certainly not my niche. Journalist’s, adventurers and exceptional life stories is what I’m interested in. And while the subject between me and the guest is typically a narrow piece of work they’ve put together, I think there are deep slick rich wells that should I bring the right tools, could be mine to explore.

Expanding the audience is only important because that’s the only metric that matters if the podcast were to become sustainable. I’ve never made a $ of the show exempt the occasional donation via a link in the episode descriptions. I’d like to think I’d still be doing it in 5 years even if I still made nothing, but I don’t know if that’s true. There is a magnificent compounding that happens in the dark when a podcast has a certain reputation. You attract the guests that were otherwise inaccessible to you. Former guests serendipitously speaking well of their experience has opened to the door to other guests whom I never could have cold emailed into an interview. I want this at more scale, and that’s all downstream of expanding the audience. More nodes connecting to more nodes is only good news if you’re doing something good.

Regression to the podcasting mean is mostly only bad news for bad podcasts. For everyone else, its gravy. Podcast listenership is only going to grow (it’s a better medium afterall) and with translation tools made more accessible and cheap over time, millions and millions of new audience in Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Mexico, Russia, you name it will open up the English speaking podcast to the rest of the world. Regression to the podcasting mean could lead to a more balanced landscape of shows where quality and something different are prioritised over sheer volume. Meaning more and more listeners for those who meet the quality standards and the increasing chance of more and more serendipity bending over the horizon.